Analysis of Trade Patterns and Duration: Evidence from Food Industry in the OECD countries

Abstract

This study conducts Kaplan-Meier survival estimates on food trade patterns among the OECD countries and explores whether different survival conditions exist in different t rade patterns of food sub-industries. By applying the extended Cox proportional hazard model, this study examines the effects of consumption on the survival rate for horizontal intra-industry trade pattern at the SITC four-digits level. Our findings show an important policy implication that the stability of horizontal intra-industry trade on the survival duration is driven by consumption in food industry among the OECD countries. Therefore, we suggest that policies should encourage the support of the horizontal intra-industry trade within the food industry to avoid unstable durations of trade in the global supply chain caused by the severe employment adjustments associated with traditional comparative advantage.