Effects of Climate Change on the Long-run Crops’ Yields in Nigeria

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of climate change on yields of leading food crops in Nigeria and assessed the transmission channels of climate shocks to welfare. Long-run causality test, Markov-switching regression and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model were used. Long-run causality between climate change and crop yields was not rejected. A rise in temperature by 1% reduces crop yields by -0.12% in the regime of high yield while 1% increase in rainfall increases yields by 0.21% and 0.26%, respectively in high and low yield period. Shocks to welfare is traceable to climate change via crop yields and food prices effect.