Egyptian food security of wheat in light of new challenges

Abstract

The research aims mainly to study Some economic aspects of Egyptian food security of wheat in light of new challenges through studying of several sub-objectives represented in: estimating the models of the general trends function of some economic indicators of wheat in Egypt during the study period (2005-2020), estimating the size of wheat food gap and knowing the most important factors responsible for it, studying the most important indicators of Egyptian food security from wheat, studying the expected effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war on wheat supply chains in Egypt, and studying the policies and means to achieve Egyptian food security from wheat. Descriptive and quantitative analysis were used. The study depends on secondary data, which collected from local and foreign sources during the period (2005-2020). A study models of the general trend function for economic indicators showed that each of the total domestic production of wheat, domestic consumption, the average per capita share of wheat, the quantity of wheat imports, the food gap of wheat, the price of wheat Egyptian imports, the periods of covering the local production, and the quantity of imports for daily consumption of wheat, self-sufficiency ratio and the period of coverage of domestic production for daily consumption. It was found that all of these variables took a general, statistically significant, upward trend at the significant level (0.01). The statistical significance of the variables of the world import price of wheat and the total of the production and import coverage periods was not shown for daily domestic consumption of wheat, while the annual growth rates varied as shown in the research. The conduct study shows that the most important variables specific to the food gap of wheat are the local production of wheat, and the national consumption of wheat where it was found that the impact of each of these two variables on wheat gap be negative.
For the current situation of wheat production in light of 2030 strategic vision and the impact, the study showed that the strategic stock for wheat is estimated at about 1.4 million tons and the average local consumption of wheat is estimated at about 16.92 million tons during the study period (2005-2020), thus estimated food security of about 0.15 is therefore required to take various actions which lead to increase the size of the strategic stock of wheat enough for half of it needs for domestic consumption even come close to the value of suitable coefficient of wheat food security. The study showed that the policies and means to achieve wheat food security include horizontal agricultural development policy, vertical agricultural development policy, the policy of rationalizing the consumption of wheat, policy of consumer subsidy of bread, and the policy of diversifying sources of imported wheat.
For the expected effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war on wheat supply chains in Egypt, it is clear from the research that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to an impact on world food supplies in general, and wheat particular, and on Egypt and the Middle East. It is possible that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will increase the food insecurity that some countries suffer from, including Egypt, as the lack of supplies and the rise in food prices will lead to food insecurity and weakness for many countries.
In the light of the results of the study illustrated by research it has been possible to reach some of the following recommendations:

-Work to expedite the disbursement of the price of the crop supplied to the mills.
- Intensify the efforts of agricultural extension and agricultural research centers to educate farmers about the importance of resisting pests and diseases that affect the crop, and help them obtain pesticides that are not harmful to the environment necessary for this.
- Increasing of wheat production by expanding the wheat crop in the new lands.
- Raising the productive capacity of the wheat crop by circulating high-productivity varieties that suit each of the administrative centers in Egypt.
- Rationalizing wheat consumption by reducing the volume of wasted wheat in the production and marketing stages.
- To achieve food security, it is necessary to prepare awareness programs to implement the policy of breeding control, as it is one of the most important factors determining the demand for Egyptian wheat imports.
- The state should review wheat supply prices in the coming years in order to encourage farmers to plant the largest areas allocated for wheat, and therefore, the current world prices of wheat must be considered when pricing.